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Active Milestone M3Quantitative ML Trading Organism

GAIA ORGANISM

An evidence-gated machine learning organism for market microstructure -- filtering high-frequency noise through CUSUM event sampling to emit directional outcome probabilities locked to a 30-minute lead-time law.

Signal Gating
>90% Precision

Conformal prediction threshold holding tight bounds

Lead-Time Law
≥ 30 Minutes

Signals valid before market moves occur

Hardware Engine
AMD MI300X

ROCm memory-pinned high throughput inference

Core Architectural Principles

CUSUM Noise Reduction Filter

Replaces standard time-series bars with volatility-driven event sampling to eliminate non-informative tick noise.

Purged & Embargoed Cross-Validation

Eliminates overlap leakage across sequential labels to guarantee reliable out-of-sample performance validation.

Risk Gravity & Kelly Allocation

Capital sizing is capped at Quarter-Kelly fractional allocation with automatic regime kill-switches.

Epistemic Honesty Gating

Model publishes predictions only when uncertainty bounds are strictly met -- remaining idle during ambiguous regimes.